01The constraint that sets everything else
Start with the arithmetic, because it rules out most of the strategies you would otherwise consider.
Every producer that has built graphene capacity above a hundred tonnes a year has run into the same wall, which is that installed capacity and sold tonnage are different numbers and the gap between them is where the companies died. This project starts on the far side of that wall by a factor of a thousand. Treating it as a graphene plant would be a category error.
What the molten-carbonate electrolysis route actually gives you is a tunable carbon reactor. The same cell produces graphene nanoplatelets, carbon nanotubes, battery-grade graphite, carbon black substitute or amorphous carbon depending on how it is run. That is not a footnote about process flexibility. It is the entire commercial thesis, because it is what lets one plant serve ten markets that have nothing to do with each other.
The frame this model uses. This is a diversified carbon materials business that happens to be fed by captured CO₂. It is not a graphene company, and it is not a carbon capture project with a product attached. Both of those framings produce numbers that fall apart on contact with the market data.
02The book of business
Ten segments, four price tiers. Change any tonnage or price and everything below recomputes. Tonnages above a segment's published absorbable ceiling turn red, because that is the assumption most likely to be doing work it has not earned.
| Segment | Tier | Tonnes/yr | Price $/t | Revenue | Share | Absorbable range | Qualifies |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total book | 100% |
Price is what the segment clears at the tonnage shown. It is not fixed. Each segment carries a price today and a price at full-conversion volume, and the model interpolates between them in proportion to how much of that segment's capacity you are filling, because a buyer paying development-contract prices for four hundred tonnes will not pay them for forty thousand.
03Reality checks
Four tests that a book of business either passes or does not. They are computed from the table, not asserted.
04What the book earns
The full twenty five year cash flow, computed in the page. Segments ramp only after their qualification cycle, conversion capital is added only as tonnage is contracted, and the credit stack runs for its statutory twelve years and then stops.
Revenue at full build
Capital
05Why the CO₂ side cannot stand alone
The instinct is to treat the capture project as a safe floor with product revenue as upside on top. The comparables do not support it.
| Project | Capacity | Capex | Per annual tonne | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Petra Nova, Texas, 2017 | 1.4 Mt/yr | ~$1.04B | $743 | Mothballed May 2020, restarted 2023 at reduced capacity |
| Boundary Dam, Saskatchewan, 2014 | 1.0 Mt/yr | C$1.35B | $999 | Has never reached nameplate, averages about 65 percent |
| Quest, Alberta, 2015 | 1.0 Mt/yr | C$1.35B | $999 | Best performing of the three, and it is hydrogen production rather than power |
| Mesquite Lake, this project | 0.85 Mt/yr | $625M to $1.0B | $735 to $1,176 | Not yet built |
Capture and wells alone, before a single kiln, cost between $625M and $1.0B at this scale. Run the CO₂ blocks on their own against the credit stack and the answer is not close.
| Revenue stack | Effective $/t | EBITDA | NPV over the credit period | Payback | Feasible |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| §45Q alone | $78 | −$5M | −$1,022M | never | No |
| §45Q plus LCFS base | $138 | $46M | −$746M | 22 yr | No |
| §45Q plus LCFS plus removal attribute at $50 | $188 | $89M | −$515M | 11 yr | No |
| §45Q plus LCFS high plus removal at $100 | $258 | $148M | −$193M | 7 yr | No |
| §45Q plus LCFS plus removal at the $150 BECCS floor | $288 | $174M | −$54M | 6 yr | Close |
Breakeven on the CO₂ blocks alone is $300 per tonne at the modelled capital cost, and it ranges from $254 to $353 per tonne across the low and high ends of the comparables. Even stacking §45Q, a certified LCFS pathway and a carbon removal attribute at the price the credit-stack work carries for BECCS does not quite clear it.
This inverts the usual reading of the project. The product engine is not speculative upside sitting on a safe credit floor. The credit stack services roughly a third of what the capture blocks cost, and the products pay for the rest. A book of business is therefore not a nice-to-have that improves the returns. It is the condition on which the capture project is financeable at all.
06Where the numbers come from
Every figure in this page is either published on a SAVRN page, taken from the market and comparables record, or marked as a model input.
| Input | Value | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| CO₂ captured | 850,000 t/yr | Project instruction. The sizing model page runs 840,000 t/yr. |
| Conversion efficiency | 75% | Sizing model default, range 40 to 95 percent |
| Carbon yield per tonne CO₂ | 0.2727 | Stoichiometry, 12 over 44 |
| World graphene demand | 3,800 t/yr | IDTechEx, Research and Markets 2026 |
| Segment prices and absorbable ranges | see table | Market segment map, August 2026 |
| Capture island and wells | $800M | CCS comparables, $625M to $1.0B for this capacity. Supersedes the $275M carried on the sizing page. |
| Conversion capital | $6,000/t-yr | Sizing model, kiln potlines, purification and loadout at 180 kt/yr |
| §45Q utilization and sequestration | $60 and $85/t | 26 USC §45Q, twelve year credit period |
| §45Q transfer realization | 92% | Model input, credit market discount under §6418 |
| LCFS credit | $60/t | Feasibility input. Requires a certified CARB pathway, and is zero without one. |
| Carbon removal attribute | $100/t | Feasibility input. The credit-stack page carries $150 to $500/t for BECCS removal. |
| Discount rate | 15% | Model input, equity hurdle |
| Royalty, SG&A, formulation and logistics | 5%, 9%, 8% | Model inputs, on the revenue lines shown |
The full workbook, with the twenty five year cash flow, the feasibility screen and the segment ramp as live formulas, is at the financial model page. The physics and capital stack come from the sizing model, and the commercial discipline from the commercial strategy.
Basis and disclosures
- Purpose
- This page is prepared by SAVRN for evaluation by the recipient. It is not an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security or interest, and it is not investment, legal, accounting, or tax advice. Any offering would be made only through definitive documents.
- Forward-looking content
- Scenarios, model outputs, ramp schedules, and pricing bands on this page are estimates built on the assumptions and sources shown. Actual results will differ. SAVRN undertakes no obligation to update this page as conditions change.
- Tax credits
- Amounts shown for §45Y, §45Q, §48, and §48E are estimates of eligibility under current statute and guidance. Each depends on facts not yet fixed, including prevailing wage and apprenticeship compliance, begin-construction date, domestic content, energy-community designation, prohibited-foreign-entity sourcing, and placed-in-service timing. Transfer pricing under §6418 is market-dependent. A tax opinion is required before any amount on this page is relied on.
- Model outputs
- Outputs move with the inputs on this page. EBITDA is stated before depreciation, amortization, interest, tax, technology license and royalty payments, selling and administrative cost, outbound logistics, and product formulation cost. Volumes assume offtake at the stated prices; the industry record on that point is set out in the commercial strategy page.
- Estimate class
- Capital and operating figures are AACE Class 5, order-of-magnitude (−50% / +100%), based on parametric analogies rather than engineered quantities. They are not a FEED or FEL-1 estimate.
- Third parties
- Companies, products, contracts, and prices named on this page are drawn from the public sources listed and are used for market reference. No affiliation, endorsement, or supply relationship is implied except where a signed agreement is stated.
- Data as of
- August 2026, from the sources listed on this page.
- Distribution
- This page is served without search indexing and is shared by link. Treat it as SAVRN business information and share it only with parties who need it.