CO₂ CONSUMED
t/yr · of input
GRAPHENE OUTPUT
t/yr GNC / GNP
MATERIAL REVENUE
blended $/t
§45Q + O₂ CREDITS
EBITDA
% margin
ELECTRICAL LOAD
MW continuous
Scenario:
Phase 1 · anchor offtake secured, mid-mix

Product Mix Allocation

100.0%
Allocate output across 10 segments · edit tonnage or price · revenue updates live

Revenue by Segment

$M/YR

P&L Waterfall

$M/YR

Financial Summary

ANNUALIZED

Mass & Energy Balance

STOICHIOMETRY

Mesquite Lake CO₂-to-Graphene Complex

Full build sequence · 840,000 t/yr biogenic CO₂ input · C2CNT primary process with UP Catalyst secondary track · 180 kt/yr GNC nameplate at full scale · Imperial Valley, CA

~62
acres · plant footprint
~7,200
Genesis kilns · full scale
210 MW
continuous electrical
72 mo
FID → full scale

1 · Process Flow Block Diagram

FEEDSTOCK → PRODUCT
Mesquite Lake CO₂-to-graphene process flow A · FEEDSTOCK B · CAPTURE C · CONVERSION D · PRODUCT Biomass Boiler 100 MW turbine · restart ~620 kt CO₂/yr Cogen Units Regional biogas + NG ~220 kt CO₂/yr DAC (Optional) Phase 3 add-on 50-100 kt/yr Amine Capture Island (MEA / Piperazine) Svante / MHI KS-21 · 0.9–1.3 MWh/t CO₂ parasitic Output: 95%+ pure CO₂ · compressed to 30 bar DAC Skid Climeworks / Heirloom Phase 3 · optional unconverted CO₂ → sequestration C2CNT Genesis Kilns Molten Li₂CO₃/SrCO₃ electrolysis @ 750°C Primary · 6 potlines · 7,200 modules UP Catalyst (Alternate) Secondary process track Phase 3 diversification Sequestration CarbFix in-situ · Salton Trough Rail → Elk Hills TerraVault O₂ Coproduct Cryo separation ~480 kt/yr @ full scale O₂ vent stream Purification & Speciation → Battery-grade / Composite / Packaging Rail / Truck Load-Out → 10 Offtakes
Feedstock Capture Primary conversion Alternate license Sequestration Coproduct Product

2 · Mesquite Lake Site Plot Plan

~62 ACRES · IMPERIAL VALLEY
MESQUITE LAKE ENERGY PARK · PROPERTY LINE N 1 Biomass Boiler 100 MW · restart ~620 kt CO₂/yr 2 Amine Capture Island MEA · CO₂ compression Phase 1 · Y2 12 O₂ Cryogenic Recovery Genesis O₂ module Phase 2 · Y3 10 Purification & Spec Grinding · QC · packaging Phase 1 base + expansion 3 Genesis Potline 1 1,000 kilns · 25 kt GNC/yr Phase 1 · Y2 4 Genesis Potline 2 1,000 kilns · 25 kt GNC/yr Phase 2 · Y3-4 5 Genesis Potline 3 1,000 kilns · 25 kt GNC/yr Phase 2 · Y3-4 11 220 kV Substation BTM biomass + IID import Phase 1 · Y1-2 6 Genesis Potline 4 1,200 kilns · 30 kt/yr Phase 3 · Y5 7 Genesis Potline 5 1,500 kilns · 37.5 kt/yr Phase 3 · Y5-6 8 Genesis Potline 6 1,500 kilns · 37.5 kt/yr Phase 3 · Y6 9 UP Catalyst Line 20 kt/yr · alt track Phase 3 · Y6 13 CO₂ Injection + CarbFix Salton Trough basalt · dissolution Phase 1 · Y2 14 Rail Loadout & Warehouse UP spur · 10 offtakes Phase 1 · Y2 15 Admin · Control · Safety Control room · fire · water Phase 1 · Y1-2 16 · Reserved · DAC Array + Future Kiln Expansion (Phase 3+ · optional) UP RAIL SPUR
Existing / restart Phase 1 (Y1-2) Phase 2 (Y3-4) Phase 3 (Y5-6) Infrastructure Alternate

3 · Kiln Module Ladder

GENESIS DEVICE® STACK
Reference: C2CNT Genesis Device® module = 100 t CO₂/yr → 25 t GNC/yr per kiln (Carbon Corp spec, verified Cambridge Prisms 2025). Genesee Carbon Conversion Centre (GC3) is the commercial reference at 2,500 to 7,500 t CNT/yr. Mesquite modularly stacks kiln count across three phases to reach 180 kt/yr GNC.
PhaseTimingPotlines +Kilns +Kilns Cum. GNC + (kt/yr)GNC Cum.CO₂ ConsumedElectrical
Phase 1Y1-212,0002,0005050183 kt/yr34 MW
Phase 2Y3-422,0004,00050100367 kt/yr67 MW
Phase 3Y5-63 + UP3,2007,20080 + 20180660 kt/yr125 MW
Full Scale · Y6+6 + alt7,200 Genesis kilns180 kt/yr GNC210 MW total
Kilns stacked (each block = 100 modules · color = phase)

4 · Capex Stack by Phase

TOTAL INSTALLED COST
Block
Phase 1
Phase 2
Phase 3
Total
Amine capture island
$120M
$60M
$40M
$220M
Genesis kiln potlines
$180M
$300M
$460M
$940M
UP Catalyst alt line
$85M
$85M
O₂ cryogenic recovery
$70M
$30M
$100M
Purification & spec
$45M
$25M
$40M
$110M
220 kV substation
$40M
$15M
$25M
$80M
CarbFix sequestration
$35M
$10M
$10M
$55M
Rail spur + loadout
$25M
$5M
$30M
Admin, control, safety
$15M
$5M
$5M
$25M
Contingency (10%)
$46M
$49M
$70M
$165M
Phase Total
$506M
$539M
$765M
$1.81B

5 · Development & Construction Timeline

72 MONTHS · FID → FULL SCALE

6 · Technology Track Comparison

C2CNT PRIMARY · UP CATALYST ALTERNATE
PRIMARY

C2CNT · Carbon Corp / GWU

ProcessMolten Li₂CO₃/SrCO₃ electrolysis @ 750°C
TRL7–8 · GC3 operational
ModuleGenesis Device® · 25 t GNC/kiln/yr → scaling to 250 t
FeedDirect 5% CO₂ flue gas · no pre-concentration
ProductsCNT, graphene, nano-onions, buckypaper, Si-composite
Energy5–8 MWh/t GNC
Purity97%+ TGA
Coproduct2.67 t O₂ per t C · Genesis O₂ module
LicensingCarbon Corp Calgary · Licht IP
ReferenceShepard 860 MW NGCC · GC3 (2,500→7,500 t/yr)
SECONDARY

UP Catalyst · Estonia / Finland

ProcessMolten salt CO₂ electrolysis · proprietary
TRL6–7 · pilot 2026 · 20 kt/yr by 2031
ModuleStackable reactor cells · vendor-scaled
FeedPre-concentrated CO₂ · 95%+
ProductsCNT, few-layer graphene, carbon black replacement
Energy6–9 MWh/t (early commercial)
PurityGrade-dependent · characterization in scale-up
CoproductO₂ recovery included
LicensingUP Catalyst · €18M EIB backed
RationaleDe-risks vendor dependency · alt product mix

7 · Staffing Plan

HEADCOUNT BY PHASE
RoleP1P2P3Full
Plant management62210
Process engineers86620
Electrolysis operators (4-shift)24244896
Capture / compression ops124824
Maintenance & instrumentation16101844
Lab / QC / R&D84618
Logistics · rail · warehousing104620
EHS · security · admin104620
Total FTE9458100252

8 · Utilities & Consumables (Full Scale)

ANNUAL
ELECTRICAL LOAD
210 MW
continuous · biomass BTM + IID
PROCESS WATER
1.2 M gal/day
cooling · 90% recycled
Li₂CO₃ INITIAL FILL
7,200 t
one-time · SrCO₃ alt
CARBONATE MAKEUP
720 t/yr
10% annual replacement
ELECTRODES
~$18M/yr
SS · Muntz · 5-yr life
AMINE SOLVENT
~$3M/yr
MEA / piperazine losses
NATURAL GAS BACKUP
200 MMBtu/day
boiler startup · flare pilot
CO₂ TRANSPORT
84 kt/yr
rail · CarbFix onsite

9 · Permits & Regulatory

CRITICAL PATH
  • CECSB 100 biomass restart · thermal power license
  • CARBLCFS pathway · biogenic CO₂ → GNC utilization
  • ICAPCDAir permit · Title V · amine emissions
  • EPA§45Q eligibility · MRV plan · utilization + sequestration
  • CalGEMCarbFix injection · Class V UIC or Class VI
  • IID220 kV substation interconnection · import agreement
  • Imperial Co.CUP · industrial zoning · CEQA EIR
  • USACESection 404 · rail spur crossings
  • DOT/FRARail spur design · UP interchange

10 · Risk Register

FID-STAGE
HIGH
Offtake concentration. Concrete/cement is ~46% of Phase 1 revenue. Secure 2+ binding offtakes pre-FID.
HIGH
C2CNT scale-up. 250-1,000 t/kiln under commercial validation. Phase capacity against GC3 milestone gates.
MED
CarbFix Class V permit. Novel in CA. Backup: rail to Elk Hills TerraVault (proven).
MED
Li₂CO₃ price exposure. $15–25k/t. Mitigate: SrCO₃ alternate (Licht 2024).
MED
§45Q monetization. Utilization tier $60/t requires LCA-verified permanence.
LOW
Power availability. 100 MW BTM + IID grid tie. Redundant paths.
LOW
UP Catalyst readiness. Only added Phase 3 · 2031 target matches.

11 · Basis of Estimate

AACE CLASS 5 · −50% / +100%
This is a Class 5 concept estimate
Per AACE International 18R-97, a Class 5 estimate is order-of-magnitude only, based on parametric analogies rather than engineered quantities. Expected accuracy: −50% / +100%. This document exists to be pressure-tested. Every line below shows source, confidence, and range so it can be replaced with FEL-1 numbers from a real EPC study.
Line Item
Estimate
Confidence
Range (Low–High)
Basis & Source
Genesis kiln potlines 7,200 kilns · 3 phases
$940M
LOW
$560M – $1.5B
Biggest uncertainty in the model. Carbon Corp has not published kiln-level capex. Back-solved from GC3 project disclosures (2,500 → 7,500 t CNT/yr in Alberta), yielding ~$130k/kiln installed. No vendor quote. Requires licensing conversation with Carbon Corp to confirm.
Amine capture island 840 kt/yr capacity · MEA/piperazine
$220M
MED
$340M – $670M
Estimate runs low vs published benchmarks. NETL 2022 baseline puts post-combustion NGCC capture at $61/tonne levelized. Thunder Said Energy (2024) and Sustainable Atlas triangulate to $400–800/tpa installed. Our $262/tpa assumes 5% flue-gas CO₂ stream (higher than NGCC 4%) and modular EPC. Requires Svante/MHI/Shell CANSOLV quote to validate.
Purification & speciation Grinding · functionalization · QC
$110M
MED
$75M – $180M
Anchored to jet mill / classifier / functionalization line pricing from analog battery-anode graphite plants (Novonix, Westwater disclosures at $75–150M for 25 kt/yr). Requires equipment RFQ from Netzsch, Hosokawa, or Alpine for grinding scope + Silarcane for functionalization.
O₂ cryogenic recovery 480 kt O₂/yr @ full scale
$100M
MED
$80M – $200M
Air Products / Linde / Air Liquide ASU disclosures: $150–250M for a full-scale 500 kt/yr cryogenic O₂ plant. Our scope is smaller since we're recovering pure O₂ from the Genesis anode stream, not separating from air. Requires quote from one of the three major industrial gas OEMs.
UP Catalyst alternate line 20 kt/yr · Phase 3 only
$85M
LOW
$60M – $180M
Extrapolated from UP Catalyst's €18M EIB debt facility for their pilot commercial reactor. Assumes 4x scale-up from the 5 kt pilot. Contingent on UP Catalyst commercial availability by Y6 and technology-transfer terms.
220 kV substation + tie 210 MW capacity · BTM + IID
$80M
HIGH
$60M – $120M
CAISO interconnection cost data: 200 MW+ ties typically $50–120M. Well-anchored line item. Utility-scale substations are commoditized. Confirmed by IID published interconnection queue costs for similar loads.
CarbFix sequestration head Injection wells + monitoring
$55M
MED
$40M – $90M
CarbFix public reports: $25/t CO₂ all-in including drilling and MRV. Scaled to 200 kt/yr injection capacity. Assumes Salton Trough basalt is confirmed suitable for in-situ mineralization (feasibility study by CEC 2022 indicates yes; backup is rail to Elk Hills).
Rail spur + loadout 6–8 miles to UP main line
$30M
HIGH
$18M – $50M
Association of American Railroads industry standard: $3–5M per mile of new industrial spur (2024 dollars). Requires UP interchange agreement and Imperial County ROW permits. Distance to main line pending survey.
Admin / control / safety Control room · fire · warehouse
$25M
HIGH
$18M – $40M
Well-benchmarked line. Industrial admin and control building costs run $250–450/sq ft in Southern California per RSMeans 2024 data. Assumes 50–100k sq ft footprint.
Contingency (10%) Applied to direct capex
$165M
LOW
$300M – $500M
Contingency is understated for this AACE class. Real Class 5 estimates carry 20–30% contingency; 10% is FEL-2/3 territory. If retained at Class 5 level, contingency alone should be $330–495M. Adjust upward before any capital raise.
Total Installed Cost
$1.81B
CLASS 5
$1.45B – $2.90B
Range applies AACE Class 5 accuracy band (−20% / +60% used here, tighter than the theoretical −50% / +100% because line-item benchmarks anchor the estimate). Central case is directionally correct; not investment-grade until FEL-1 completes.

What we did NOT have

No vendor quotes for Genesis Devices. Carbon Corp does not publish kiln pricing. Requires NDA + licensing conversation.
No FEED study. This is a napkin-level Class 5 estimate. Real projects require an EPC-led FEL-1 study ($2–5M, 4–6 months).
No site geotech. No soils, no seismic, no wetlands survey for Mesquite Lake. All site-work costs are parametric.
No offtake pricing. All offtake $/t values are current spot market. Binding offtake agreements will compress premium pricing 20–40%.
No labor-market study. Imperial Valley construction labor availability, prevailing wage rates, and PLA terms unquantified.
No detailed permitting timeline. CEQA EIR alone can add 12–24 months. Class V UIC permit is novel in California.

Path to investment-grade estimate

1
Carbon Corp licensing conversation
NDA → kiln unit pricing → potline capex · timeline: 2–4 weeks
2
FEL-1 study by EPC
Fluor, Bechtel, or Kiewit · $2–5M investment · delivers AACE Class 3 estimate (−20% / +30%) · timeline: 4–6 months
3
Capture island RFQ
Svante, MHI KS-21, Shell CANSOLV, ION Clean Energy · competitive bid · timeline: 3–4 months, parallel to FEL-1
4
Site characterization
Geotech, wetlands, cultural survey, ALTA · $500k–1.5M · timeline: 3–5 months
5
Binding offtake LOIs
2+ battery-grade + 2+ cement offtakes for Phase 1 volume · pricing validation · timeline: 6–9 months, parallel
6
Class 3 estimate + FID package
EPC delivers investment-grade budget · debt/equity structuring · timeline: month 12–15 from start

12 · Credit Strategy: Leverage Only

Thesis: Restart the 100 MW biomass plant. Burn Imperial Valley ag residue. Sell power under a bundled PPA. Stack every credit and incentive that requires zero additional capex, zero new equipment, and zero new business lines. Vent the biogenic CO₂; it is net-zero on lifecycle.

What we're NOT doing: No carbon capture unit. No graphene plant. No CO₂ utilization. No dairy digester consortium. No Class VI sequestration. No 250-person industrial complex. Just a biomass power plant with a clean credit stack.

What we ARE stacking: Bundled PPA (REC embedded) + Federal §45Y PTC + Ag-residue tipping fees. Optional LCFS pathway if we structure end-use around H₂/EV/biofuel, evaluated separately as an upside case.

Revenue Stack: 100 MW Biomass Plant, 744 GWh/yr

Revenue Stream Rate Annual ($M) Applies? Basis
Bundled PPA (Energy + RA + REC embedded) $60–85/MWh $45–$63M Yes CCA or IOU offtake. REC value ($30–$40/MWh) is inside this rate. Do not double-count. PCC-1 RECs $73–$83/REC in 2024–25
Federal §45Y PTC (open-loop biomass, PWA) ~$28/MWh × 10 yr $21M/yr Yes Post-IRA rate w/ prevailing wage compliance. Statute secure through 2033 construction start.
Ag Residue Tipping Fees $30–$50/ton $11–$19M Yes 380k BDT/yr. Farmers pay us; Imperial + SJV ag burning is banned as of Jan 2025.
LCFS Pathway (upside, requires end-use structuring) $20–$35/MWh $15–$26M Only if structured Applies only if power feeds H₂ production, EV charging dedication, or biofuel synthesis, not straight grid delivery. Evaluate separately. CARB Nov 2025 monthly report
Realistic Base Case (no LCFS) $105–$135/MWh $77–$103M/yr Bundled PPA + PTC + tipping fees. This is what we count on.
Upside Case (with LCFS pathway) $125–$170/MWh $92–$129M/yr If LCFS end-use structuring is executed. Requires legal + CARB pathway work.
CREDIT 1
Bundled PPA · REC Embedded
$45–$63M/yr
What it is: A single power purchase agreement with a Community Choice Aggregator (CCA) or investor-owned utility that bundles energy, resource adequacy (RA), and the Renewable Energy Credit (REC) into one $/MWh rate. Every MWh you generate automatically creates one REC through WREGIS. The utility keeps it to count against their RPS mandate (60% renewable by 2030, 100% clean by 2045).
Why it works: California utilities and CCAs are compulsory buyers of RECs. This is not a discretionary market. The REC value ($30–$40/MWh embedded, or ~$75/REC if sold unbundled as PCC-1) is baked into the bundled rate.
What we do: Sign a 15–20 yr PPA. Do not unbundle the REC. The bundled rate is cleaner and easier to finance. Target CCAs first (SCE / SDG&E territory CCAs pay competitively for firm baseload biomass).
CREDIT 2
Federal §45Y Production Tax Credit
$21M/yr × 10 years
What it is: Federal production tax credit for zero-emissions electricity generation. Open-loop biomass qualifies at the full 1.5¢/kWh rate (~$15/MWh base) if prevailing wage + apprenticeship (PWA) compliance is met from day one. Adder credits for domestic content and energy communities can push the effective rate to ~$28/MWh.
Why it works: Statutory. Not discretionary. Runs 10 years from commercial operation date. Secure through construction start by end of 2033.
What we do: Structure prevailing wage documentation and apprenticeship program from day 1 of construction. Confirm energy community designation (Imperial County likely qualifies). Confirm domestic content threshold at procurement.
CREDIT 3
Ag Residue Tipping Fees
$11–$19M/yr
What it is: Farmers and dairy operators pay us $30–$50/ton to take their agricultural residue: date palm trimmings, alfalfa dust, sudan grass, dairy manure solids, food processing residue. This is negative feedstock cost. We get paid to receive fuel.
Why it works: As of Jan 2025, Imperial County and the San Joaquin Valley banned open agricultural burning (SB 705 + SJVAPCD rule). Farmers have no compliant disposal path except haul-away. Our plant becomes the compliant disposal endpoint for 380k BDT/yr of ag residue.
What we do: Sign 10-yr feedstock supply agreements with dairies, date growers, and alfalfa co-ops within 75 mi. Charge $30–$50/ton tipping. Route dedicated haul trucks. This alone covers a material fraction of plant OpEx.
CREDIT 4 · UPSIDE ONLY
LCFS Pathway (Only If Structured)
$15–$26M/yr potential
What it is: California's Low Carbon Fuel Standard cap-and-trade. Petroleum refiners buy LCFS credits from producers of low-carbon transportation energy. Credits are issued based on the carbon-intensity delta versus the California standard, priced at $56–$70/tCO₂e as of late 2025 with a $268.90/credit ceiling.
The catch: LCFS was designed for transportation fuels. Biomass power qualifies only if the electricity is used to make hydrogen, dedicated to EV charging, or synthesized into biofuel. Straight grid delivery does not qualify. This is a structuring problem, not a free credit.
What we do: Treat as upside optionality, not base case. Evaluate three end-use structures separately: (1) dedicate a portion of plant output to on-site H₂ electrolysis for regional fleet fueling; (2) sign a dedicated PPA slice with an EV charging network; (3) route power to an adjacent biofuel synthesis unit. Each requires CARB pathway certification and legal structuring. Do not include it in base-case revenue until the pathway is certified.
Recommendation: File the LCFS pathway application in Year 1. Certification takes 6–12 months. If certified, the incremental $15–$26M/yr is pure upside on top of the base case. If not certified, we lost paperwork time and nothing else.

Base Case Economics: What We Count On

Annual Revenue (Base)
$77–$103M
PPA + PTC + tipping. No LCFS.
Annual Revenue (Upside)
$92–$129M
If LCFS pathway certified.
Effective $/MWh (Base)
$105–$135
All-in blended rate on 744 GWh.
Capex (Restart Only)
~$385M
100 MW biomass restart. No capture, no bolt-ons.
Estimated OpEx
~$45M/yr
Labor, maintenance, fuel handling (net of tipping).
Simple Payback
7–12 yr
Base case, no LCFS upside.

What Doesn't Apply, and Why

Program Nominal Rate Applies? Why Not
BioRAM (Bioenergy Renewable Auction Mechanism) $119/MWh No Requires 80% forest sustainable + 60% High-Hazard-Zone fuel. Mesquite is 500+ mi from Sierra Nevada HHZ. Our feedstock is ag residue, not forest waste. PG&E Advice Letter 5955-E
BioMAT Category 3 (Sustainable Forest) $199.72/MWh No 5 MW capacity cap. Plant is 100 MW. Program also ended Dec 2025 (extended by CPUC decision but still 5 MW cap).
BioMAT Category 2 (Dairy/Ag Digester) $187.72/MWh No 5 MW cap. Also requires digester feedstock, not direct combustion.
BioMAT Category 1 (Biogas) $127.72/MWh No 5 MW cap. Not applicable to 100 MW biomass power.
§45Q Sequestration Credit $85/tCO₂ No Requires CO₂ capture unit ($200M+ capex) and Class VI injection well within pipeline range. We are explicitly NOT building capture. Rail/truck to distant pipeline destroys economics anyway.
§45Q Utilization Credit $60/tCO₂ No Requires CO₂ capture AND audited utilization end-use. We are not building either.
SGIP (Self-Generation Incentive) Various No Behind-the-meter storage program. Not applicable to grid-export biomass.
Voluntary Carbon Market (VCM) offsets $5–$50/tCO₂ No Would require CO₂ capture. We are not building capture.

Execution Order

STEP 1
Sign Bundled PPA
Negotiate with SCE, SDG&E, or an SCE/SDG&E-territory CCA for a 15–20 yr bundled PPA at $60–$85/MWh. RA + REC embedded. This is the anchor contract that unlocks financing.
STEP 2
Lock Feedstock Supply + Tipping
Sign 10-yr supply agreements with 20–30 Imperial Valley ag operations. Charge $30–$50/ton tipping fee. Structure haul logistics. Ag burn ban makes this a compulsory service they need.
STEP 3
Structure §45Y PWA Compliance
Prevailing wage + apprenticeship framework in place before construction mobilization. Confirm Imperial County energy community designation. Confirm domestic content threshold at procurement stage.
STEP 4
Evaluate LCFS Pathway (Upside)
In parallel, file LCFS pathway application with CARB. Evaluate H₂ / EV-charging / biofuel end-use structuring. If certifiable, +$15–$26M/yr. If not, no downside.
The question that sizes everything

You captured the carbon. Now what?

Every capture project faces the same three-way choice: pipe it into the ground, truck it to whoever buys gas, or turn it into products. The first two put a hard ceiling on what a tonne can ever be worth. The third turns a waste stream into a manufacturing business, and the material it makes is one of the most broadly useful substances ever characterized. This tab lays out the comparison, then catalogs what graphene actually becomes.

Three fates of a captured tonne

Outcome comparison
Bury it
Pipeline + Class VI injection well
$85/t, 12 years, then $0
  • §45Q sequestration credit, fixed by statute, ends after the credit period
  • Needs a pipeline or well, an injection permit, and monitoring in perpetuity
  • At the capital cost of the three capture plants actually built at this scale, the credit services roughly a third of what capture costs
  • Creates almost no ongoing jobs once construction ends
Truck it
Merchant CO₂ sales
$20–80/t, regional, logistics-bound
  • Beverage carbonation, greenhouses, dry ice, welding gas
  • Markets are local and shallow; a plant this size overwhelms them
  • Most merchant CO₂ returns to the atmosphere within weeks
  • A fine ancillary line, never a business
Build with it
Carbon becomes advanced materials
$6,000–$400,000/t of product, permanent
  • One tonne of CO₂ carries enough carbon to support tens of thousands of dollars of product revenue at graphene pricing tiers
  • Carbon locked in a road, a building, or a composite stays put for the life of the structure; the IPCC counts storage in durable products as removal
  • Builds a factory, a workforce, and offtake relationships instead of a hole
  • The catch is real: product markets must be qualified and grown, and that takes years
Is there a better outcome than the pipeline or the ground? On our numbers, yes, with one condition. Run the CO₂ blocks alone against the full credit stack and they never pay back; the credits cover roughly a third of the capture capital. Run the same blocks with a product engine on top and the project clears an equity hurdle in every case we model. The product business is not upside sitting on a credit floor. It is the thing that makes capture financeable at all. The financial model and the live product-mix model carry the full computation.

Why one material serves so many markets

The property set
~200×
the tensile strength of structural steel by weight, from a single-atom carbon lattice
~5,000 W/mK
thermal conductivity in ideal sheets, several times better than copper
2,630 m²/g
theoretical surface area, the reason it works in batteries and capacitors
<0.1%
typical loading in concrete and polymers; tiny doses move bulk properties

One more property matters commercially: the molten-carbonate route is tunable. The same electrolysis cell can be steered toward graphene platelets, carbon nanotubes, battery-grade graphite, or carbon black substitute by changing operating parameters. One reactor, many products, which is what lets a single plant serve markets that have nothing to do with each other.

The application atlas

19 applications

Filter by sector. Every entry lists the mechanism, the form and dose, the price tier, and where it stands commercially. Entries marked shipping have product in the field today.

Concrete & cementshipping

Nanoplatelets seed cement hydration and bridge microcracks. Documented gains of about a third in compressive strength at doses under 0.1 percent of cement weight, and blended designs cut the concrete's own carbon footprint by up to half. The world places 14 billion cubic meters a year, so this is the one end market bigger than any plant.

Form: dispersion / dry admixTier: $12,000–60,000/tDeployed: structural pours at working utility sites; a top-tier cement producer ships graphene-enhanced cement
Asphalt & roadsshipping

Graphene-modified bitumen resists rutting and fatigue cracking, extending pavement life. Already down on high-traffic public roads and an international airport runway apron in Europe; the first flash-graphene public road went in during 2025. Roads are bought by specification, which makes a state paving spec the reference contract that turns a plant into a company.

Form: polymer composite pellet, ~3% of mixTier: $6,000–12,000/t blendedDeployed: public roads, airport, test tracks
Structural composites & rebar alternativesscaling

Graphene-reinforced polymer composites offer corrosion-free reinforcement and lighter structural sections for bridges, precast elements, and marine structures where steel rusts. The same mechanism strengthens wind turbine blades and modular building panels.

Form: resin masterbatch, 0.5–3%Tier: $14,000–25,000/tDriver: corrosion cost and weight
Tires & rubbershipping

Partial replacement of carbon black at 5 to 15 percent loading improves wear, grip, and rolling resistance together, a combination rubber chemists usually trade off. One major tire maker reports 9 percent better rolling performance, 32 percent better grip, and 21 percent better puncture resistance, and now runs graphene compounds in every road tire it sells. Carbon black itself is a 14 million tonne a year market, which makes this the volume endgame.

Form: powder / masterbatchTier: $6,000–12,000/tDeployed: commercial tire lines
Automotive & aerospace compositesscaling

In carbon-fiber laminates and engineering plastics, graphene raises interlaminar strength, adds lightning-strike and EMI protection, and sheds weight. Aerospace grades command the highest prices in the entire catalog and carry the longest qualification cycles, including defense standards work.

Form: prepreg / resin additiveTier: $300,000–400,000/t aerospace; $14,000–25,000/t autoDeployed: qualified auto tier-one parts; aerospace in qualification
Battery anodes (graphite)scaling

Every 100 kWh battery pack carries roughly a tonne of graphite, and nearly all of it is refined in one country. A CO₂-derived, domestically produced graphitic carbon tuned to anode morphology walks into a supply chain actively looking for exactly that. The anode market is about a million tonnes a year and growing with every gigafactory.

Form: spherical graphitic carbonTier: $8,000–15,000/tGate: 18–24 month cell-maker qualification
Conductive additives & silicon anodesscaling

At half a percent to two percent in electrode slurries, graphene cuts cell resistance measurably. The richer prize is silicon: silicon anodes swell and crack on cycling, and a graphene coating at 20 to 30 percent by weight is what holds them together. Silicon-graphene composite anodes are the highest-value near-term battery product in the catalog.

Form: functionalized platelets / dispersionsTier: $30,000–100,000/tBuyers: cell makers scaling silicon lines now
Supercapacitors & fast storageemerging

With 2,630 square meters of surface per gram, graphene electrodes store charge at the surface rather than in chemistry, charging in seconds and cycling millions of times. The fit is grid smoothing, regenerative braking, and backup power where batteries wear out.

Form: high-surface-area powder / filmTier: $100,000+/tStatus: commercial niches, growing
Chips & electronicsemerging

The candid tiering: what ships today is thermal films inside flagship phones, printed conductive inks, and EMI shielding. What is in the lab is the bigger story, with electron mobility far beyond silicon, wafer-scale growth demonstrations, graphene interconnects, and photonic modulators. Silicon replacement is a long horizon; sitting inside the package, moving heat and blocking interference, is now.

Form: CVD film / inks / plateletsTier: $150,000–500,000/t equivalentStatus: packaging today, transistors tomorrow
Thermal management & data centersscaling

Graphene films and pastes spread heat several times faster than copper at a fraction of the weight, which is why phone makers already laminate them over processors. The same physics serves GPU thermal interface materials and AI accelerator packaging. For SAVRN this is the adjacency that closes a loop: the carbon our power infrastructure captures can cool the compute it feeds.

Form: films, pastes, TIM sheetsTier: $100,000–500,000/tDeployed: consumer devices; data-center products in development
Sensors & printed electronicsscaling

Every atom of a graphene sheet is surface, so anything that touches it changes its conductivity. That makes the most sensitive practical strain, gas, and biosensor platform known, printable as ink on flexible substrates for structural health monitoring, wearables, and industrial IoT.

Form: conductive inks / functionalized filmTier: $150,000+/tStatus: commercial inks shipping
Fibers & textilesshipping

Spun into polymer yarn or coated onto fabric, graphene spreads body heat evenly, dissipates static, blocks UV, and suppresses bacterial growth without silver. Commercial apparel lines already ship graphene-treated jackets, activewear, and workwear membranes. Add conductivity and the fabric itself becomes the sensor, which is the entry point for clothing that monitors heart rate or posture without wires.

Form: fiber masterbatch / fabric coatingTier: $30,000–80,000/tDeployed: consumer apparel and technical textiles
Sporting goodsshipping

Rackets, skis, bicycle frames, running-shoe plates, and golf shafts already use graphene for stiffness-to-weight the customer can feel. Small tonnage, strong margins, and consumer-visible branding that pulls the rest of the catalog along.

Form: resin / composite additiveTier: $25,000–80,000/tDeployed: multiple consumer brands
Anti-corrosion coatingsshipping

Graphene platelets in epoxy and polyurethane form an impermeable barrier that multiplies corrosion life three to five times. Pipelines, ships, offshore wind towers, and storage tanks are the buyers, and corrosion costs the global economy trillions a year, so the pull is structural.

Form: 1–3% in primer formulationsTier: $30,000–100,000/tDeployed: commercial primer platforms
EMI / RFI shieldingscaling

Conductive graphene films, foils, and adhesives block electromagnetic interference for 5G and 6G equipment, radar, drones, and satellites, replacing heavier metal shielding. Defense and telecom spend is pulling this segment faster than most.

Form: films / adhesives / conductive foamTier: $100,000–500,000/tStatus: commercial JVs shipping product
Lubricants & frictionemerging

Atom-thin sheets shear past each other almost without resistance, so trace graphene in oils and greases cuts friction and wear in bearings, gearboxes, and engines. A small-tonnage market with immediate, measurable payback for industrial operators.

Form: dispersion in base oilTier: $50,000+/tStatus: additive products on the market
Water & membranesemerging

Graphene oxide membranes pass water while rejecting salts and contaminants, promising desalination at lower pressure and energy than polyamide membranes. The same selectivity is being engineered for gas separation, including membranes that pick CO₂ out of mixed streams, a neat closing of the loop for a capture site.

Form: GO laminate membranesTier: $500,000+/tStatus: pilots; the patent race is active
Biomedicalemerging

Graphene biosensors detect disease markers at vanishing concentrations; graphene oxide carries drugs to targets; antibacterial wound dressings and implant coatings exploit the same surface chemistry. Volumes are tiny, margins are the highest in the catalog, and the regulatory road is measured in years, which is exactly why it belongs at the end of the roadmap rather than the start.

Form: medical-grade GO / functionalized filmTier: $1,000,000+/t equivalentGate: medical device approval pathways
Agriculture & soil carbonemerging

Graphene-coated fertilizers release nutrients slowly, cutting runoff; carbon soil amendments improve water retention and lock carbon in the ground as a working input rather than buried waste. Low price, unlimited volume, and a second carbon-removal story on the same molecule.

Form: coated granules / bulk carbonTier: $1,000–5,000/tStatus: field trials
Where the tonnage goes as cost falls
Tier 1 · volume sinksbattery graphite, concrete, tires, polymerstens of kt/yr each at $6,000–15,000/t
Tier 2 · growthconductive additives, silicon anodes, coatings, thermallow kt/yr at $30,000–200,000/t
Tier 3 · specialtyaerospace, EMI, membranes, biomedical, chipshundreds of t/yr at $300,000+/t
Tier 4 · displacementcarbon black (14 Mt/yr), metallurgical carbon, EAF graphiteunlimited volume once cost nears $1,000–3,000/t
This ladder is the commercial strategy in one picture: specialty tiers pay for the plant, volume tiers absorb the tonnage, and the displacement tier is the endgame if the cost curve cooperates. The commercial strategy documents why capacity without offtake has killed every graphene producer that tried to skip the ladder, and the product-mix model lets you build the book segment by segment.

Basis and disclosures

Purpose
This page is prepared by SAVRN for evaluation by the recipient. It is not an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security or interest, and it is not investment, legal, accounting, or tax advice. Any offering would be made only through definitive documents.
Forward-looking content
Scenarios, model outputs, ramp schedules, and pricing bands on this page are estimates built on the assumptions and sources shown. Actual results will differ. SAVRN undertakes no obligation to update this page as conditions change.
Tax credits
Amounts shown for §45Y, §45Q, §48, and §48E are estimates of eligibility under current statute and guidance. Each depends on facts not yet fixed, including prevailing wage and apprenticeship compliance, begin-construction date, domestic content, energy-community designation, prohibited-foreign-entity sourcing, and placed-in-service timing. Transfer pricing under §6418 is market-dependent. A tax opinion is required before any amount on this page is relied on.
Model outputs
Outputs move with the inputs on this page. EBITDA is stated before depreciation, amortization, interest, tax, technology license and royalty payments, selling and administrative cost, outbound logistics, and product formulation cost. Volumes assume offtake at the stated prices; the industry record on that point is set out in the commercial strategy page.
Estimate class
Capital and operating figures are AACE Class 5, order-of-magnitude (−50% / +100%), based on parametric analogies rather than engineered quantities. They are not a FEED or FEL-1 estimate.
Third parties
Companies, products, contracts, and prices named on this page are drawn from the public sources listed and are used for market reference. No affiliation, endorsement, or supply relationship is implied except where a signed agreement is stated.
Data as of
August 2026, from the sources listed on this page.
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